The Carnival Is In Town
If January was any indication of how 2026 is going to play out, you might want to double-check the safety harness on your brokerage account. We’ve just closed the books on a month that felt less like a sober financial period and more like a neon-lit boardwalk at midnight.
The air is thick with the scent of fried dough and "get rich quick" adrenaline. From the boardroom to the message boards, the vibe is unmistakable: the bulls aren't just running; they're performing acrobatics. But as the music gets louder and the rides spin faster, it’s worth asking who’s actually running the controls
“Hey, buddy, would you like to buy a watch real cheap
Here on the street
I got six on each arm and two more round my feet
Life is a carnival – believe it or not”
-“Life Is A Carnival” by The Band
This current bull run is feeling a lot like a carnival these days. There’s plenty of fun to be had, corn dogs to eat. There are rocket ship rides, sideshows and carnival games. The most popular one seems to be whack a mole. But it’s not us who’s clubbing those adorable little rodents popping up unpredictably from their holes. It’s the market, watching FOMO pop up in one area after another, then clubbing them down to keep the game running longer.
In 2024 it was the old familiars who popped, Nvidia, Tesla, Netflix. Then the new wave of Palantirs and Robinhoods. Bitcoin and Ethereum joined in the fun. They’d pop up, get a little bop on the head, pop up again. Some of them continued into 2025, but then we scraped the barrel for new creatures to fill the holes - the Oklos, Irens, Cipher Minings of the world.
Gold got in on the fun, to which Silver said “oh yeah, hold my beer” and blasted off to a 250% return. Silver popped so hard it straight left the field of play. Gonna’ need a bigger rubber mallet for that one.
The point here isn’t to be flippant or facetious, though I can’t help myself. I’m not trying to call a top, predict a bubble or tear down these investments. Some of these have good reasons to be increasing in value.
The point here is to recognize the game. To not be fooled into thinking it’s something it isn’t. I don’t think silver is up 250% because we use the precious metal in solar panels, EVs and AI data centers. I don’t think it’s “mooning” because the value of the U.S. dollar has dropped 9% over the last year. I think it’s up 250% because at first it was up 50%, and then 100%. It’s up because people are chasing the price action, and while that may be a good reason to go up in the short-term, it’s not a great reason to stay up. Which is why Silver looks to me like a mole looking for a rubber mallet.
If I’m jaded, it’s because I’ve seen this played out before. And you have to. To quote The Band, “we’re all in the same boat ready to float off the edge of the world, the flat old world.”
Don’t play games with your core portfolio. Stick to the plan. Build your own boat. Sail away into the sunset.